The laws of prophecy generate a thorny dilemma. On the one hand, the Torah (Devarim 18:19) commands our adherence to the words of authentic prophets. According to our tradition, transgressing this directive can bring about a heavenly death sentence. On the other hand, offering false prophecy is a capital offense (Devarim 18:20) and we obviously must not listen to the commands of a phony prophet. These two commandments make it imperative to find a method for distinguishing the true prophet from the fraud.

The Torah itself raises this question (Devarim 18:21) but its answer is unclear. Perhaps we test the accuracy rate of a prophet’s predictions. We assume authenticity when they consistently come true whereas if reality fails to match the predictions, we have a false prophet. One problem is that this evaluative approach renders Yona a false prophet. He declared the destruction on Ninveh in forty days yet Ninveh was not destroyed. However, we know very well that God instructed Yona to deliver that message; only the repentance of the people of Ninveh saved them. We need a method for testing prophets that incorporates the possibility of a change in behavior on behalf of those prophesized about causing an alteration of the divine prediction.

Rambam dealt with this conundrum by differentiating between positive and negative predictions. Repentance can cancel the latter but the former always come to fruition. This reflects the tendency of divine governance to enable reward more easily than punishment. It also provides a means for testing candidates for the prophetic mantle. We test the accuracy of their prediction rate regarding positive prophecies (see Hilchot Yesodei Hatorah 10:4 and Hakdama lePerush haMishna).

Other authorities reject Rambam’s approach and offer alternative methods for ascertaining the authentic prophet. We shall return to the alternatives in another post and focus now on a proof text for Rambam. While Yirmiyahu prophesized a Babylonian exile of seventy years, Chanania claimed that the exile would last less than two years. Yirmiyahu speaks to his rival: “The prophets that have been before me and before you of old prophesied against many countries, and against great kingdoms, of war, and of evil, and of pestilence. The prophet that prophesies of peace, when the word of the prophet shall come to pass, then shall the prophet be known, that the Lord has truly sent him” (Yirmiyahu 28:8-9).

At first glance, these verses establish Rambam’s position. Yirmiyhau contrast prophets who foresee suffering with Chanania, who predicts good tidings. He also associates the latter kind of prediction with the ability to determine the true prophet. Indeed, for Rambam, only positive predictions provide a conclusive test. How will Rambam’s opponents contest this proof?

Abravanel suggest an insightful alternative reading in his commentary on Yirmiyhau. Yirmiyahu understands that Chanania is likely to quickly achieve much greater popularity than Yirmiyahu himself. Who wants to hear about long term exile when another prophet speaks of immediate return? At the same time, Yirmiyahu also understands that easily acquired popularity proves fleeting. It dissipates instantaneously when the predicted good does not appear.

According to this reading, Yirmiyahu makes no reference to establishing prophetic credentials; rather, he says something about prophetic posterity. Earlier prophets are not remembered for saying what the people wanted to hear but for telling the truth. This contrasts with Chanania who knows the way to instant communal acclaim but was soon forgotten in the dustbin of history.

This point about prophecy, an institution we lack, has tremendous contemporary relevance. One of the great things abut Western democracies is the ability of the people to vote the crooks and incompetents out of office every four or so years. One disadvantage of the constant turnover is the perpetual focus on immediate solutions. Given the short terms, few politicians are bold enough to talk about twenty or seventy year plans. Yet some problems require such long range thinking. Yirmiyhau’s message to Hananiah still reverberates quite powerfully for us.